Member of the Commission XI of the House, Achmad Hafisz Tohir, speaks during the Commission meeting. Photo: Arief/ nvl

Amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the emergence of new virus variants, Indonesia would be unlikely to meet the economic growth target of 7 percent. Member of Commission XI of the House of Representatives, which oversees financial affairs, Achmad Hafisz Tohir, has forecast the economy to grow only 4.5 percent.

In his press statement released on Sunday (6/6/2021), Tohir underlined that Indonesia would meet the 4.5 percent growth if the state revenue reaches 100 percent. Three sectors: productivity, bureaucracy, and regulation, might still become the factors that hinder the growth. “It’s hard for the government to meet the 7 percent growth by only relying on business as usual,” he said.

High growth requires a significant amount of investment and exports. But the fact shows that the two sectors only contribute 5 percent to the development. The politician from National Mandate Party (PAN) said the two sectors needed to be improved. To meet 7 percent growth, he said, export and investment should grow between 5 and 7.5 percent at least.

He went on to say one thing that keeps hampering the national economy is Indonesia’s slow vaccine rollout, as it still far below the target of 180 million people. Some countries run vaccine programs faster than others. The U.S., for example, administers a daily average of 2 million doses. “This becomes a huge challenge for us to return to normal economy and life,” said Tohir, who is also the Vice Chairperson of the Committee for Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation.

The U.S. monetary policy, he said, also still affected global markets. Its inflation could put pressure on global monetary policy, including Indonesia. “That’s why we have to get ready when the U.S. central bank (The Fed) changes its monetary policy by reducing liquidity intervention, tightening, and increasing interest rate.” (mh/sf)